Authority Formation in Fragmented Conflicts

Armed conflicts remain a major challenge to sustainable development across the globe. Relationships between local populations and armed actors are of central importance for understanding these conflicts. These relations affect the onset of violence, conflict dynamics, civilian victimization, and post-conflict socio-political legacies. They can range from violent and exploitative to peaceful and cooperative. Despite the importance of these relationships, there is limited understanding of how they form. This lack of understanding is especially pronounced in fragmented conflicts, where civilians face multiple smaller armed groups rather than a single controlling force, leading to a volatile and uncertain environment. Fragmented conflicts are eminently common across the world and include some of the world’s deadliest conflicts, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Libya, or Myanmar.

We use a mixed-methods study to better understand why and how armed actors form relationships with the local population in South Kivu, eastern DRC. We conduct a population survey to test insights from qualitative interviews with local experts, civilians, and armed group members conducted in 2023. The project seeks to contribute to developing durable solutions and working towards peace by focusing on the perspectives of the local population. Understanding civilians’ needs and beliefs and how they view armed actors can help develop policies to improve civilian situations in fragmented conflicts in general. Additionally, insights into governance arrangements in South Kivu can guide localized solutions, particularly important as the UN Peace Operation MONUSCO is withdrawing after over 20 years in the region. The project partners Groupe d’Etudes sur les Conflits et la Sécurité Humaine (GEC-SH), and the International Peace Information Service (IPIS) will use the evidence to prepare policy recommendations and for public outreach in affected areas.

Project partners: external page Groupe d’Etudes sur les Conflits et la Sécurité Humaine (GEC-SH), DRC, external page International Peace Information Service (IPIS), Belgium